The UK’s looming ‘energy crunch’

FAMILIES, industry and hospitals could face regular blackouts in the West country in the next decade because the Government has not woken up to a potential “energy crunch”, one of the region’s leading engineers has warned.
Barry Griffiths, director of the Institution of Civil Engineers South West, reckons the three-day working week and life by candlelight, not seen since the miners’ strike of the 1970s, could return unless there is deep investment in power generation across the UK.

He argues that old power stations are not being replaced fast enough and renewable energy production targets are falling behind, leaving a so-called “energy gap”.

Given the number of years it takes to build major power projects, the Devon-based engineer argues that decisions on major nuclear, renewable and fossil fuel projects need to be made now.

The impending crisis is symbolised by the Oldbury and Hinkley nuclear power stations on the Bristol Channel, the biggest single energy generators in the South West, both of which are set to close in the next decade.
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Mr Griffiths was speaking to the Western Morning News at a conference organised by the professional body to discuss proposals for a controversial multi-billion pound tidal power scheme on the Severn estuary.

He said: “The energy crisis the UK is facing over the next decade is very real. We have not had enough short to medium-term planning to provide a blueprint for energy generation that will see us well into the 2020s.

“The Government will have to pay far more attention to what the country’s engineers are telling them and start investing in a comprehensive strategy to meet demand and improve energy efficiency.”

The argument was borne out in a report produced by consultants Fells Associates last year. It argued the looming energy crisis was one of the reasons the Government was anxious to drive forward the tidal project on the Severn.

Five shortlisted schemes and two development projects for the Severn, which has as much as 5 per cent of the UK’s power needs locked within its massive tidal range, are now out for public consultation.

A final shortlist is expected to be announced in June.

But the tidal scheme, which has been seriously questioned by the RSPB and Friends of the Earth over fears that hectares of internationally protected habitats might be destroyed, could take as long as 10 years to build.

The biggest project proposed is a 10-mile long concrete barrage built from the Welsh capital of Cardiff across to Weston-super-Mare, Somerset, on the English side of the estuary.

Mr Griffiths argues that developing a mix of power derived from renewables, nuclear and fossil fuels is the only realistic route forward, allied to a reduction in energy consumption.

“There is not one solution,” he said.

He is currently drawing up a report on an energy strategy for the region on behalf of the South West Regional Assembly, which is likely to make it clear the Devon and Cornwall peninsula would be particularly susceptible during an “energy crunch”.

As a indication of the massive upheaval needed in the region, under a renewables-only scenario, thousands of wind farms would have to built in the South West and vast tracts of the countryside would have to given over to biomass generation.

Mr Griffiths said: “About four years ago, there was a lot of misinformation and not a lot of number-crunching. The idea that renewables would power the UK was almost accepted. But there was not a lot of rigorous analysis of the real solution. We were kidding ourselves.”

The South West needed around 25 terrawatt hours (TWH) of electricity a year to meet demand from households, hospitals, street lights and industry. But around 10 TWH was produced outside the region and had to imported.

But by 2016, the South West would be much more dependent on energy imports with only 20 per cent of the total energy needed generated in the region, said Mr Griffiths.

As such, and with only the under-construction Langage gas-fired power plant in Plymouth operating in Devon and Cornwall, the two counties would be at greater risk of blackouts.

Ageing power stations, dwindling North Sea oil production and the vulnerability to imports of resources from Europe – as underlined by the recent flashpoint between Russia and the Ukraine that left much of Eastern Europe without a gas supply – are among other reasons to increase homegrown power, it is argued.

Gas and coal-fired power stations proposed across the country have been vehemently opposed by environmentalists who argue the threat of climate change is even greater.

Mr Griffiths said the “energy crunch” theory became apparent after drawing parallels with the current financial problems in the banking system.

“With the credit crunch, the Government has let things drift for the past 10 years. The same has happened with energy policy and to some extent transport. With transport, it leads to annoyance. But with energy, towards the end of 2015 to 2020, we are going to see old power stations closing down.

“The Government hasn’t planned far enough in advance to meet the energy needs in 2020.”

He added that harnessing the power of the Severn’s tides, first examined seriously in the 1900s, was “the most fantastic opportunity” for the region. Just half the power it could generate would equate to a third of the South West’s energy needs, he said.

But against the backdrop of deep environmental concern, he cautioned that the Institution of Civil Engineers was only “pro the right solution”.

Asked whether he thought we would see the lights going out, he said: “We could do. It’s touch and go if the Government does not do something dramatically very soon.

“We in the South West are at the end of the power line. We don’t know exactly what that might mean, but we could probably guess. It won’t be good.”

Analysts Capgemini last year warned that the country would not have new nuclear power plants until around 2018.

Dr Jon Gibbins of Imperial College also issued a similar warning of blackouts because of a failure to replace ageing power plants.

Source - The Western Morning News