Monday, 18 May 2009

BP on solar panels: the solar industry hits back

Tony Hayward, chief executive of BP, had some harsh things to say about solar power at an energy conference in La Jolla, California.

While he believes that solar power could and probably will pay off one day - he is on the record arguing that the second half of the 21st century will be the “solar century” - he does not expect the present generation technology ever to be commercially viable without subsidy. To reach the solar industry’s Holy Grail of “grid parity” - competing on level terms with fossil fuel generation - it will need a fundamental technological breakthrough, he argued.

Now the solar industry is hitting back.

Coming on the day that the world’s biggest solar power deal was announced, between BrightSource, the solar company, and PG&E, the California energy supplier, his comments may have seemed badly timed. (BrightSource uses concentrating solar power, with mirrors focusing sunlight to heat water, rather than the photovoltaic cells produced by BP.)

But that announcement only really served to prove Mr Hayward’s point. Solar power in California benefits from generous state and federal tax breaks, and governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has set a target of deriving 20 per cent of the state’s electricity from renewables by 2010.

However, Jeremy Leggett, founder of the UK solar power company Solar Century, points to an industry study arguing that photovoltaic solar electricity will be as cheap as conventional electricity by 2013.

Costs per watt peak, approaching £4 per Wp [watt peak] installed now and below £2 per Wp installed by 2020, are falling rapidly today as recent constraints in the upstream PV supply chain unwind. Beyond this, PV has a long-term cost-down prognosis, driven by the nature of the manufacturing process for crystalline silicon PV and also by substitution to thin film…

Grid parity will occur in around 2013 for residential customers, and around 2018 for commercial installations, based on current projections. PV grid parity is usually assumed to happen beyond 2020 in the UK..
Generally there is a good and ever improving investment case for solar PV, particularly at the residential level; PV is an investment grade technology due to its long life, reliability and predictability, and is seen as a valuable and low risk asset class for investors of many different types.

That line about “as constraints in the upstream PV supply chain unwind” is the key one: as the industry has slowed in the downturn, over-supply has sent prices of solar cells tumbling. That is good news for generators, who are indeed seeing their economics look more favourable as their costs fall. But it is grim for manufacturers such as BP, who are seeing both the volume and value of their sales declining. You can see why Mr Hayward is not feeling very cheerful about solar right now.


Source - heatmyhome

Cost of solar panels will match fossil fuels by 2013

Solar energy will fall in price to match the cost of conventional fossil fuel electricity far sooner than previously expected, the UK’s largest solar company has claimed in a new report. Solarcentury said British homeowners will see solar achieve “grid parity” – the point where solar electricity rivals or becomes cheaper than conventional nonrenewable electricity – by 2013. Most predictions suggest that technological innovation will not bring the price down far enough until 2020 or later.

The company suggested falling production costs for solar panels and increasing conventional electricity costs have brought parity closer. Prices for solar and grid electricity in residential homes are expected to crossover at around 17p to 18p per unit of electricity (kWh) in 2013, followed by parity for commercial solar electricity in 2018.

Last December, the renewable energy analysts New Energy Finance predicted silicon costs – a key material for much solar panel technology – would fall by 31.5% in 2009 compared with 2008 levels. Energy consultants Element Energy, under commission from the government, have also forecast solar PV costs will fall by around half between now and 2020.

Derry Newman, CEO for Solarcentury, said: “When you reach grid parity, you have a watershed moment where the perceptions of investors and consumers shift. People have been programmed to believe solar is expensive and takes a hundred years to pay back, but when parity arrives people realise it takes 8-10 years to payback, and they can then be making money out of it.”

Jeremy Leggett, executive chairman of Solarcentury said, “The feed-in tariff that the government has said it will bring in from April 2010 is vital. A burst of premium-pricing for solar energy, of the kind now on offer in 18 European countries, will stimulate a very fast-growing market.”

Experts said the projections were based on significant assumptions in future energy prices, which have been extremely volatile over recent years – last year saw gas and electricity prices double, but now household bills are falling again.

Ray Noble, solar PV specialist at the Renewable Energy Association, said: “The predicted grid parity by 2013 could be possible if all of the predictions, both in terms of grid electricity prices increasing and reductions in the cost of solar PV, come through. However that’s a big if – any slight changes in the pricing can add further years to this date.” He added that the important message is that even if grid parity slipped to 2016, the moment when solar can compete on cost is not far off.

Chris Goodall, Green party parliamentary candidate and author of Ten Technologies to Save the Planet, warned the grid parity predictions were based on unrealistic price assumptions. “This projection of residential grid parity depends crucially on continually increasing prices of conventional electricity, but I just don’t see any evidence that residential electricity will cost 17-18p a kWh in 2013. The ‘underlying’ retail price of electricity at the moment is no more than 11p per kWh,” he said.

Newman argued that China will continue to take more fossil fuel and believes peak oil will begin to bite in 2013, which will both contribute to rising prices in fossil fuel electricity.

Source - Heatmyhome

Norwegian energy supply falls 7%

Norway, the world’s fourth biggest crude exporter and the UK’s second largest gas supplier, said Monday that its oil production fell a sizeable 7% in April to 1.99 million barrels a day last month from 2.15 million barrels a day in March.

Though preliminary, the data highlight one of the big underlying supply problems in non-OPEC states that many oil analysts believe is likely to send crude prices back over the $100 a barrel mark in coming years. Oil closed Friday at $58.63, its highest settle since mid-November. It is trading around $57.75 a barrel this morning.

The Norwegian situation is being replicated in other non-OPEC oil producers, such as Mexico and the U.K. These regions are mature and giving up less oil, meaning that keeping production flat is getting harder and harder.

If analysts are right, this underlying supply struggle will keep oil prices relatively strong in coming years. And that’s a boon for renewable energy developers. Not just are they set to receive an enormous infusion of cash, low-interest loans and other support out of capitals from Washington D.C. to Beijing, they appear set to get some tailwind from high oil prices. If the worst global recession in decades can’t derail oil prices for long, that’s a good sign that the global economy is entering a period of oil prices high enough to support ongoing investment in renewable (a.k.a. competing) energy sources.

In addition to the so-called “below ground” geological issues, non-OPEC producers, which currently meet about 60% of the world’s daily crude demand, are grappling with the global economic recession. The International Energy Agency in Paris last month cut its 2009 non-OPEC supply forecast by 320,000 barrels a day to 50.3 million barrels a day due to falling spending on drilling projects. It was the IEA’s eighth straight monthly downward revision to non-OPEC supply.

Source - Wall Street Journal

Thursday, 7 May 2009

China ready for post-Kyoto deal on climate change

China is ready to abandon its resistance to limits on its carbon emissions and wants to reach an international deal to fight global warming, the Guardian has learned.

According to Britain's climate change secretary, Ed Miliband, who met senior officials in Beijing this week, China is ready to "do business" with developed countries to reach an agreement to replace the Kyoto treaty.

Miliband said he was encouraged by the change in tone since late last year in the country that emits more greenhouse gases than any other. "I think they're up for a deal. I get the strong impression that they want an agreement," he told the Guardian.

"They see the impact of climate change on China and they know the world is moving towards a low-carbon economy and see the business opportunities that will come with that."

The shift in the Chinese position significantly improves the chances of an agreement being reached when world leaders meet in Copenhagen in December to negotiate a deal that scientists say is critical if dangerous warming is to be avoided.

While Britain and the European Union – which have a large historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions – are pushing for ambitious reduction targets at home, no global climate deal will be possible in Copenhagen without the agreement of China and the US, which together are responsible for more than 40% of the world's annual carbon emissions.

China's official negotiating position is unchanged, but the government is understood to be preparing a set of targets up to and beyond 2020 to lower the country's "carbon intensity". This translates to cutting the emissions needed to produce each unit of economic growth.

Miliband said Barack Obama's pledge to reduce US emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 has unblocked the international negotiating process.

"China used to think the developed world is not serious. That's what they were saying [at UN talks] in December," he said. "But now they know the US is on the pitch and ready to engage with them. It has made a real difference to what China is saying."

His comments echoed the message from Chinese officials. Su Wei, a senior negotiator, told the Guardian last month that the US had made a "substantive change" under the Obama administration.

"The message we have got is that the current US administration takes climate change seriously, that it recognises its historical responsibility and that it has the capacity to help developing countries address climate change," Su said.

But while the tone may have changed, there is still a long way to go before agreement can be reached on specifics.

China wants developed nations to commit to more ambitious reduction targets, to share low-carbon technology and to set up a UN fund that would buy related intellectual property rights for use across the world. Beijing's position is complicated by the fact that it already owns a large share of the patents for wind and solar energy in developed nations.

Europe and the US accept the Chinese economy should be allowed to grow further, improving the living standards of its millions of poor, before it makes overall emissions reductions. Instead, the western nations are pushing for strong measures to improve efficiency and establish caps for certain industries. One possibility being considered by Chinese officials is to set a carbon intensity goal up to 2040 that would include energy efficiency, renewable energy, transport and afforestation.

"It would be very welcome for China to set a commitment for carbon intensity," said Miliband. "It would send a signal around the world."

He was visiting Minqin county, a remote area in north-western China threatened by desertification and drought. Along with the melting of the Himalayan glaciers, the spread of deserts and the shortage of water have highlighted the destructive impact of unsustainable development and climate change.

"We're very concerned about climate change," said Xu Wenshan, the deputy mayor of Wuwei, at a welcome banquet. "Living in such an ecologically fragile area, we will feel the impact directly if there is a further rise in the temperature."

Jim Watson, of the UK's Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, said it had become the mainstream view in China that global warming was caused by human activity, which was not the view five years ago.

"We see significant policy shifts and encouraging developments in technology, for example phenomenal development of wind power and plug-in cars. That could be a sign of things to come," he said. "My impression is that although the negotiators haven't moved ground officially, there are a hell of a lot of new ideas. They are very interested in low-carbon economy."

Last month, the Tyndale centre published research showing that it was possible for China to begin reducing its total emissions from 2020.

Government officials say that is unrealistic and China has so far resisted announcing a target for when emissions might peak. But the authorities tend towards the later end of the various academic forecasts of between 2020 and 2040.

Watson noted that if emissions are measured on a historical per-capita basis, China is 78th in the world rather than first.

Source - The Guardian

Barack Obama's $1.8bn vision of greener biofuel

The Obama administration took on the powerful farming interests in America's heartland today, making clear it does not see corn-based ethanol as part of the long-term solution to climate change.

The new proposals on the biofuel – in the face of intense pressure from agricultural companies and members of Congress from corn-growing states – were seen as the first test of Barack Obama's promise to put science above politics in deciding America's energy future.

Ethanol had once appeared to provide a transport fuel which did not increase carbon dioxide. But studies have suggested that the fuel needed to process the corn meant the ethanol could be more polluting than the fossil fuel it was meant to replace. Furthermore, the use of food crops for biofuel was blamed for a substantial part of the large price rises seen in 2008.

Administration officials set out a $1.8bn (£1.19bn) plan to develop a new generation of more environmentally-friendly biofuels that are not made from food crops and have a lower carbon footprint, while also providing an immediate bail-out of existing corn ethanol producers, which are suffering in the global economic crisis: falling petrol prices have undercut demand for ethanol at the pump.

Lisa Jackson, head of the Environmental Protection Agency, made clear she does not see corn-based ethanol as a permanent part of America's clean energy mix. "Corn-based ethanol is a bridge... to the next generation of fuels ," she said.

The EPA proposed a new standard for advanced biofuels, ensuring they are at least 50% cleaner than petrol. Jackson said existing bio-ethanol resulted in a 16% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

The agency said it would also take into account the environmental impact of turning land over to biofuel crops, a key demand of the industry's critics.

Environmentalists saw the move as an early indication that the Obama administration would stand its ground against powerful industrial interests.

"For an administration that has already staked so much on restoring science to the process of governing, this was a really critical test," said Nathanael Greene, a renewable energy expert at the National Resources Defence Council. "This was the first big industry where we are starting to see some of the potential changes required by climate policy and the administration is ready to stick to the science and not get rolled by industry."

The country's fuel producers gave a cautious welcome to the announcement, but added that they would continue to challenge the EPA's criteria for measuring the environmental cost of fuel crops.

The impact on the ethanol industry of the agency's proposal, which now undergoes public review, was softened by Obama's decision to put the agriculture secretary, Tom Vilsack, who is from the corn growing state of Iowa, in charge of a new task force that will oversee biofuel development. The officials also said there would be considerable sums available to farmers to make the transition from using corn to make biofuels to using pulp and agricultural waste.

The programme envisages $1.1bn to help ethanol producers market the fuel, and to convert their processing plants from fossil fuels to renewable energy. "There is over $1.1 billion of opportunity here," Vilsack said.

Energy secretary Steven Chu said there would be an additional $786m towards the development of new biofuel refineries and the design of flex-fuel cars.

The administration's move on ethanol comes nearly two years after Congress ordered fuel refineries to increase their use of ethanol, and by 2022 to step up the share of advanced biofuels in the country's fuel mix.

The law ordered all ethanol produced after 2007 to meet a standard 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and for advanced biofuels to meet a 50% reduction target.

Existing ethanol producers will be exempt from those targets, but new plant will be required to make the grade. That represents a big challenge for the production technology.

Source - The Guardian

PSC Industries Establish Solar Business In Nigeria

PSC Industries will supply 5 turn key PV Solar module manufacturing lines, to be utilised in Nigeria. It is anticipated that PSC Industries will start producing Solar Modules in Nigeria by December 2009 or early 2010.

A total of 5 manufacturing plants of 10MWp each has been concluded upon and will all be operational by end of 2010.

Discussions are underway for additional Manufacturing Plants in Ghana and Gambia slated for 2011.

The manufactured Solar Panels will be Sold mainly for the West Africa Market.

Equipment will be delivered and installed by Rimas B.V. in the Netherlands who is active in the field of module manufacturing since 2000. The turn key solution is set up especially for this challenge and combines high quality equipment with a compact semi-automatic solution.

The initial is estimated at 12,000,000 Euros/2.8 Billion Naira and will create over 1,500 Jobs in Nigeria in 2009/2010.

Dr. Patrick Owelle, Managing Director of PSC, has been deeply committed to the idea of establishing the First Solar Manufacturing Plant idea in West Africa for more than a decade now and found the right partner in Rimas for the realization of his ideas.

Mark Verstraten, director of Rimas, believes that this opportunity is a new challenge to him and his team and will contribute strongly to his company's growth.

Source - Solardaily

Europes green energy future

It is a dazzling vision of a clean energy future. An entire continent powered by solar panels, wind and wave turbines, geothermal and hydroelectric power stations — and all stitched together by a European “supergrid” stretching from the sunbaked deserts of the south to the windswept North Sea, from the volcanoes of Iceland to the lakes of Finland.

It may sound like the stuff of science fiction but this is a vision that the European Union wants to make a reality. The concept is gaining ground among policymakers, including leaders such as President Sarkozy and Gordon Brown, who are concerned about Europe’s carbon emissions and its steadily growing dependence on Russian gas.

Adam Bruce, chairman of the British Wind Energy Association (BWEA), is convinced that a European supergrid that could eventually banish polluting fossil fuels altogether, is only a matter of time.

“We are only limited by our own ambition,” he says. “The capacity is there. There is the potential for wind alone to supply 50 per cent or more of our energy needs.”

Gregor Czisch, a German academic at the University of Kassel who developed the concept, claims it would cost €45 billion (£40.5 billion) to build. The numbers add up, he insists, and all of Europe’s electricity supplies could eventually be harvested from the wind, water and the sun.

Such dreams of renewable energy certainly catch the imagination but for Britain, which generates just 1 per cent of its electricity from renewables — the least in the European Union after Malta and Luxembourg — the gap between ambition and reality seems particularly stark.

The truth is that, despite the Government’s talk of a green energy revolution, Britain’s renewable energy industry is in crisis.

About 40 per cent of the UK’s power stations were built before 1975 and urgently need to be replaced. But the combined impact of the credit crunch, falling oil and coal prices and the weaker pound now threaten to hold up wind projects just as the UK has raised its commitment to green electricity.

“The economics a year ago were already tight but the cost of capital and the foreign exchange movement have made it much harder,” says Sarwjit Sambhi, director of power generation at Centrica, one of Britain’s Big Six power companies, which is trying to build a 250 megawatt (MW) wind farm off Lincolnshire, big enough to supply 170,000 homes. “We are not going to make investments below our return on capital so my goal will be to spend as little as possible until the economics improve,” he said.

In last week’s Budget, the Government announced incentives designed to bolster investment in huge offshore windfarms and ensure that Britain hits its target of raising the share of electricity produced from renewable sources to 35 to 40 per cent by 2020.

So will they work? Not according to Jim Skea, director of the UK Energy Research Centre. He has just undertaken a big research project into how the UK can slash its carbon emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. “In none of the scenarios we looked at were renewables picked up nearly fast enough to meet the 2020 targets,” said Professor Skea. “It will be a big struggle. We are not spending nearly enough.”

Wind power, easily the most economically attractive form of renewable energy in the UK, remains hugely expensive when compared with gas and coal.

A recently approved gas-fired station in Pembroke will cost £1 billion and will be the largest in the UK, producing 2,000MW. It would cost six times as much to build a windfarm of similar capacity.

While a strengthened subsidy regime and up to £4 billion of extra funding from the European Investment Bank (EIB) announced in the Budget are welcome, Professor Skea believes that far more radical action will be required, including huge increases in research spending to accelerate the development of better technology, and a dramatic rise in the price of traded carbon emissions, up from £13 presently to £200 a tonne.

But that is not all. Sceptics scoff that wind, wave and solar power are inherently unreliable. A solution could lie in back-up gas and nuclear plants and a far smarter grid that includes technology to balance the load at moments of reduced supply.

This could range from sophisticated centralised networks right into homes, where chips embedded in non-essential appliances could force them to switch off for brief periods as and when the grid demanded it.

Such technology exists but it is a world away from today’s grid, some of which dates back to the 1930s, and it will require vast investments and sweeping regulatory change to accomplish.

Until Europe’s governments grapple with the fine detail of these issues, the Continent’s dreams of a supergrid and a future free of fossil fuels are likely to remain in the realms of science fiction.

Ultimately, according to Professor Skea, an international deal at the UN climate talks in Copenhagen in December will be critical to achieving the political momentum required to achieve all of this.

Nevertheless, the BWEA’s Adam Bruce remains upbeat: “It’s certainly a challenge but these problems are not insurmountable. The more renewable energy you create the less it costs. People focus on the upfront capital cost but not the longer-term benefits.”

Source - The Times